NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 22:30 · Denver Summit FC vs Racing Louisville
Likeliest: Denver Summit FC win · 73%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 73% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Denver Summit FC73%69%+4
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−2
OursMarket
Racing Louisville11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Denver Summit FC
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · v Angel City FC (H)2-3
- Oct 4 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)3-0
- Sep 26 · at Kansas City Current (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · v Bay FC (H)2-2
Racing Louisville
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Boston Legacy FC (A)1-2
- Oct 3 · v Utah Royals FC (H)1-1
- Sep 25 · v San Diego Wave FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Bay FC (A)0-2
- Sep 11 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Denver Summit FC | Racing Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.