Primera División (Chile) · Mon, Jul 27 · 00:30 · Deportes Concepción vs O'Higgins
Likeliest: Deportes Concepción win · 50%
We make it 66% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportes Concepción50%30%+20
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
O'Higgins20%42%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 47% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 36% | 51% | −16 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 58% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 70% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 42% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportes Concepción
WinLossWin
- Jun 14 · v Deportes Limache (H)3-2
- May 30 · at Universidad de Chile (A)1-2
- May 24 · v Huachipato (H)2-0
O'Higgins
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Jul 24 · at Boca Juniors (A)0-1
- Jun 19 · at Universidad de Chile (A)0-2
- Jun 13 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)0-0
- May 31 · v Everton de Viña del Mar (H)2-3
- May 26 · at Millonarios (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportes Concepción | O'Higgins |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 30% |
| Both teams scored | — | 30% |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.