Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Oct 11 · 20:30 · Deportes Concepción vs Unión La Calera
Likeliest: Deportes Concepción win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportes Concepción43%45%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Unión La Calera26%25%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportes Concepción
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 13 · at Colo Colo (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Audax Italiano (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Ñublense (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Coquimbo Unido (H)1-1
- Aug 16 · at Cobresal (A)2-0
Unión La Calera
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 14 · v Deportes Limache (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at O'Higgins (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v Deportes La Serena (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · at Audax Italiano (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Ñublense (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Deportes Concepción | Unión La Calera |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.