Primera División (Chile) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:30 · Deportes La Serena vs Deportes Concepción
Likeliest: Deportes La Serena win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportes La Serena39%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Deportes Concepción32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportes La Serena
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Everton de Viña del Mar (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Universidad de Chile (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Ñublense (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Unión La Calera (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Cobresal (H)3-3
Deportes Concepción
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · v Unión La Calera (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Colo Colo (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Audax Italiano (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Ñublense (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Coquimbo Unido (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Deportes La Serena | Deportes Concepción |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.