Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Sep 13 · 18:00 · Deportes La Serena vs Universidad de Chile
Likeliest: Universidad de Chile win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportes La Serena21%24%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Universidad de Chile51%50%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 32% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportes La Serena
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 6 · v Ñublense (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Unión La Calera (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Cobresal (H)3-3
- Aug 14 · at Universidad de Concepción (A)2-0
- Aug 8 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)1-1
Universidad de Chile
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 6 · v Coquimbo Unido (H)4-2
- Aug 30 · at Universidad de Concepción (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Colo Colo (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Deportes Limache (A)3-1
- Aug 10 · v Palestino (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportes La Serena | Universidad de Chile |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.