Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Oct 11 · 23:00 · Deportes Limache vs Palestino
Likeliest: Deportes Limache win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportes Limache40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Palestino33%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportes Limache
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 14 · at Unión La Calera (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v Cobresal (H)3-0
- Sep 3 · v Ñublense (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Everton de Viña del Mar (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at Huachipato (A)3-1
Palestino
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 12 · v Universidad Católica (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · v Universidad de Concepción (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · at Cobresal (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · at O'Higgins (A)1-0
- Aug 18 · v Huachipato (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Deportes Limache | Palestino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.