Primera A (Colombia) · Mon, Oct 26 · 01:15 · Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
Likeliest: Deportes Tolima win · 67%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportes Tolima67%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%22%0
OursMarket
Deportivo Pasto10%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportes Tolima
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Rionegro Águilas Doradas (A)1-2
- Oct 11 · at Jaguares de Córdoba (A)2-3
- Oct 8 · at Atlético Nacional (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Boyacá Chicó FC (H)0-0
- Sep 27 · at Fortaleza CEIF (A)2-2
Deportivo Pasto
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 20 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Fortaleza CEIF (H)0-0
- Sep 25 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Once Caldas (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at América de Cali (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Deportes Tolima | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.