Copa Libertadores (South America) · Wed, Aug 19 · 00:30 · Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle
Likeliest: Deportes Tolima win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 32%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportes Tolima47%32%+14
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
Independiente del Valle29%38%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 41% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 62% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 68% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 46% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportes Tolima
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 14 · at Llaneros FC (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)2-1
- Aug 4 · v Independiente Medellín (H)2-3
- Aug 1 · at Alianza Valledupar FC (A)2-1
- Jul 26 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)2-1
Independiente del Valle
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 15 · v Delfín (H)3-2
- Aug 8 · at LDU (A)2-0
- Aug 2 · v Deportivo Cuenca (H)1-0
- Jul 26 · at Orense SC (A)3-2
- Jul 22 · v Técnico Universitario (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Deportes Tolima | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.