La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 2 · 16:30 · Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 35%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés51%35%+16
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Athletic Club25%37%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 63% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 65% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 49% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Apr 25 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-3
- Apr 5 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)4-3
Athletic Club
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Apr 27 · v Náutico (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-3
- Apr 22 · v Internacional (H)1-2
- Apr 21 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at Novorizontino (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Deportivo Alavés form·Athletic Club form·Head-to-head record