La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:15 · Deportivo Alavés vs Atletico Madrid
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 54%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 54% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés20%23%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Atletico Madrid54%51%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 31% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · at Athletic Club (A)0-0
- Sep 15 · v Valencia (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Racing de Santander (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Osasuna (H)5-2
- Aug 28 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
Atletico Madrid
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Osasuna (H)4-0
- Sep 13 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-0
- Sep 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Athletic Club (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.