La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 22 · 13:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 38%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés38%37%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−6
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo37%32%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 41% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 68% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 54% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Nov 8 · at Girona (A)0-1
- Nov 2 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Oct 30 · at Getxo (A)7-0
- Oct 26 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Oct 20 · v Valencia (H)0-0
Celta de Vigo
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 9 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-4
- Nov 6 · at Dinamo Zagreb (A)3-0
- Nov 2 · at Levante (A)2-1
- Oct 30 · at Puerto de Vega (A)2-0
- Oct 26 · at Osasuna (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Deportivo Alavés form·Celta de Vigo form·Head-to-head record