La Liga (Spain) · Wed, May 13 · 19:30 · Deportivo Alavés vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 61%
A 61% away win. The market says 44%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés17%30%−13
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
FC Barcelona61%44%+17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 59% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 56% | −17 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 70% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 22% | 40% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- May 9 · at Elche (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Athletic Club (H)2-4
- Apr 25 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-3
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- May 10 · v Real Madrid (H)2-0
- May 2 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Getafe (A)2-0
- Apr 22 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-0
- Apr 14 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.