La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 8 · 13:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 51%
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 33%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés51%40%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%35%−10
OursMarket
Getafe24%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 24% | +24 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 33% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 60% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 65% | +10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 62% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 4 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
- Jan 30 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- Jan 25 · v Real Betis (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
- Jan 14 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-0
Getafe
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Feb 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-0
- Jan 26 · at Girona (A)1-1
- Jan 18 · v Valencia (H)0-1
- Jan 9 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-2
- Jan 2 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.