La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Aug 15 · 17:30 · Deportivo Alavés vs Getafe
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 45%
We make it 44% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés45%40%+5
OursMarket
Draw29%34%−5
OursMarket
Getafe26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 29% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 39% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 66% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 61% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- May 23 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
- May 13 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-0
- May 9 · at Elche (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Athletic Club (H)2-4
Getafe
LossDrawWinLossWin
- May 23 · v Osasuna (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Elche (A)0-1
- May 13 · v Mallorca (H)3-1
- May 10 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-0
- May 3 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.