La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Feb 23 · 20:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Girona
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 50%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés50%39%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%32%−9
OursMarket
Girona26%29%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 39% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 47% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 61% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 68% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 58% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Feb 14 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · v Getafe (H)0-2
- Feb 4 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
- Jan 30 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- Jan 25 · v Real Betis (H)2-1
Girona
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Feb 16 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Feb 7 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Real Oviedo (A)0-1
- Jan 26 · v Getafe (H)1-1
- Jan 16 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.