La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Oct 23 · 19:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 52%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés52%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Málaga20%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Celta Vigo (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Atletico Madrid (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Athletic Club (A)0-0
- Sep 15 · v Valencia (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Racing de Santander (A)1-2
Málaga
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-5
- Oct 9 · v Espanyol (H)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- Sep 17 · v Villarreal (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Celta Vigo (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.