La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Apr 25 · 12:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 45%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés50%45%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Mallorca24%26%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 63% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 21 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-3
- Apr 5 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)4-3
- Mar 13 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
Mallorca
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Apr 21 · v Valencia (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)3-0
- Apr 4 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Elche (A)1-2
- Mar 15 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.