La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Apr 5 · 19:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 50%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés50%38%+13
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Osasuna25%32%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 42% | +17 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 49% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 62% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 54% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Mar 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)4-3
- Mar 13 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Valencia (A)2-3
- Feb 27 · at Levante (A)0-2
- Feb 23 · v Girona (H)2-2
Osasuna
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Mar 21 · v Girona (H)1-0
- Mar 15 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
- Mar 7 · v Mallorca (H)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Valencia (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.