La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 6 · 16:30 · Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 56%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés56%42%+14
OursMarket
Draw22%31%−9
OursMarket
Osasuna22%27%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 38% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 58% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 69% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 61% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 28 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Getafe (H)3-0
- May 23 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
Osasuna
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 31 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-1
- Aug 24 · v Levante UD (H)0-0
- May 23 · at Getafe (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Espanyol (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.