Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Wed, Jan 14 · 20:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 43%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés43%39%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−6
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano31%29%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 36% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 44% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 57% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 10 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Jan 4 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Osasuna (A)0-3
- Dec 17 · v Sevilla (H)1-0
- Dec 14 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
Rayo Vallecano
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Jan 11 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Jan 6 · at Granada (A)3-1
- Jan 2 · v Getafe (H)1-1
- Dec 21 · at Elche (A)0-4
- Dec 18 · v Drita (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.