La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 23 · 19:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 40%
We make it 68% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés40%39%+1
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano32%33%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 48% | −16 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 54% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinLossDrawWinWin
- May 17 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
- May 13 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-0
- May 9 · at Elche (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Athletic Club (H)2-4
- Apr 25 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
Rayo Vallecano
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- May 17 · v Villarreal (H)2-0
- May 14 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- May 11 · v Girona (H)1-1
- May 7 · at Strasbourg (A)1-0
- May 3 · at Getafe (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Deportivo Alavés form·Rayo Vallecano form·Head-to-head record