La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 25 · 20:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 40%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés40%34%+6
OursMarket
Draw27%32%−4
OursMarket
Real Betis33%34%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 40% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 48% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 66% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 68% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 50% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Jan 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
- Jan 14 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-0
- Jan 10 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Jan 4 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Osasuna (A)0-3
Real Betis
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Jan 22 · at PAOK (A)0-2
- Jan 17 · v Villarreal (H)2-0
- Jan 14 · v Elche (H)2-1
- Jan 10 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-1
- Jan 4 · at Real Madrid (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.