La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 14 · 20:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 17%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés43%17%+26
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Real Madrid32%59%−27
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 41% | +27 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 83% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 22% | +35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
LossLossLossWinWin
- Dec 6 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- Dec 2 · at Portugalete (A)3-0
- Nov 29 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- Nov 22 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
- Nov 8 · at Girona (A)0-1
Real Madrid
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Dec 10 · v Manchester City (H)1-2
- Dec 7 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-2
- Dec 3 · at Athletic Club (A)3-0
- Nov 30 · at Girona (A)1-1
- Nov 26 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)4-3
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.