La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 4 · 17:30 · Deportivo Alavés vs Real Oviedo
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 54%
We make it 42% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés54%50%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Real Oviedo20%19%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 33% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 39% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Dec 20 · at Osasuna (A)0-3
- Dec 17 · v Sevilla (H)1-0
- Dec 14 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Dec 6 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- Dec 2 · at Portugalete (A)3-0
Real Oviedo
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Dec 20 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-0
- Dec 14 · at Sevilla (A)0-4
- Dec 5 · v Mallorca (H)0-0
- Nov 29 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-2
- Nov 23 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.