La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 6 · 15:15 · Deportivo Alavés vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 43%
We make it 47% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés43%34%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%32%−7
OursMarket
Real Sociedad33%34%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 37% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 66% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 50% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinLossLossLossWin
- Dec 2 · at Portugalete (A)3-0
- Nov 29 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- Nov 22 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
- Nov 8 · at Girona (A)0-1
- Nov 2 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
Real Sociedad
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Dec 3 · at Reddis (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · v Villarreal (H)2-3
- Nov 22 · at Osasuna (A)3-1
- Nov 7 · at Elche (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Deportivo Alavés form·Real Sociedad form·Head-to-head record