Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Wed, Feb 4 · 20:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 43%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés43%33%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−6
OursMarket
Real Sociedad32%36%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 38% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 47% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 67% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 47% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
LossWinLossWinWin
- Jan 30 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- Jan 25 · v Real Betis (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
- Jan 14 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-0
- Jan 10 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
Real Sociedad
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Feb 1 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-1
- Jan 18 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Jan 13 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
- Jan 9 · at Getafe (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.