Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Wed, Dec 17 · 20:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 53%
A 53% home win. The market says 40%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés53%40%+14
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Sevilla21%30%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 70% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 60% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 57% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 14 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Dec 6 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- Dec 2 · at Portugalete (A)3-0
- Nov 29 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- Nov 22 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-1
Sevilla
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 14 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-0
- Dec 7 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · at Extremadura 1924 (A)2-1
- Nov 30 · v Real Betis (H)0-2
- Nov 24 · at Espanyol (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.