La Liga (Spain) · Tue, Sep 15 · 18:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%30%+1
OursMarket
Valencia20%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Racing de Santander (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Osasuna (H)5-2
- Aug 28 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Getafe (H)3-0
Valencia
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 11 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Barcelona (H)0-5
- Aug 30 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-3
- Aug 25 · v Real Betis (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.