La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 8 · 15:15 · Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés40%——
OursMarket
Draw30%——
OursMarket
Villarreal30%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Mar 2 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
- Feb 22 · v Espanyol (H)0-1
- Feb 15 · at Leganés (A)3-3
- Feb 9 · v Getafe (H)0-1
- Feb 2 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-1
Villarreal
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 22 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-0
- Feb 15 · v Valencia (H)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Las Palmas (A)2-1
- Feb 1 · v Real Valladolid (H)5-1
- Jan 25 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-4 | 4-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.