La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Mar 13 · 20:00 · Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 56%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés56%28%+28
OursMarket
Draw20%28%−8
OursMarket
Villarreal24%44%−20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 47% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 52% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 56% | +20 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 72% | −28 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 72% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 39% | +31 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Mar 8 · at Valencia (A)2-3
- Feb 27 · at Levante (A)0-2
- Feb 23 · v Girona (H)2-2
- Feb 14 · at Sevilla (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · v Getafe (H)0-2
Villarreal
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 8 · v Elche (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-4
- Feb 22 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Feb 18 · at Levante (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Getafe (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.