La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Aug 28 · 19:30 · Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 31%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Alavés46%31%+15
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Villarreal30%42%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 53% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 58% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 69% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 42% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Alavés
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 20 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Getafe (H)3-0
- May 23 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-0
- May 13 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-0
Villarreal
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Aug 23 · at Atletico Madrid (A)2-2
- Aug 16 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-2
- May 24 · v Atlético Madrid (H)5-1
- May 24 · v Atletico Madrid (H)5-1
- May 17 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Alavés | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.