Primera A (Colombia) · Mon, Oct 19 · 01:10 · Deportivo Cali vs Junior Barranquilla
Likeliest: Deportivo Cali win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Cali45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Junior Barranquilla25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Cali
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)3-1
- Sep 28 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · at Independiente Santa Fe (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Cúcuta Deportivo (H)3-0
Junior Barranquilla
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 14 · v Deportivo Pereira (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)2-2
- Oct 4 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)1-3
- Oct 1 · at Atlético Nacional (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · v Independiente Medellín (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Cali | Junior Barranquilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 1-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.