LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Sep 20 · 20:00 · Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa
Likeliest: Deportivo Cuenca win · 36%
We make it 51% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Cuenca36%39%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%30%+3
OursMarket
Mushuc Runa30%31%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Cuenca
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at LDU (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Libertad (H)0-1
- Sep 2 · v Guayaquil City (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Técnico Universitario (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Mushuc Runa (H)0-0
Mushuc Runa
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at Guayaquil City (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Leones del Norte (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at LDU (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · v Delfín (H)1-0
- Aug 22 · at Deportivo Cuenca (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Cuenca | Mushuc Runa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.