LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Fri, Oct 16 · 20:30 · Deportivo Cuenca vs Técnico Universitario
Likeliest: Deportivo Cuenca win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Cuenca50%51%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Técnico Universitario20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 44% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Cuenca
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · at Orense SC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Mushuc Runa (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at LDU (A)1-1
- Sep 7 · v Libertad (H)0-1
- Sep 2 · v Guayaquil City (H)1-0
Técnico Universitario
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Manta FC (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Delfín (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Leones del Norte (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v LDU (H)1-3
- Sep 1 · at Delfín (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Cuenca | Técnico Universitario |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.