Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 25 · 23:00 · Deportivo Garcilaso vs Los Chankas CYC
Likeliest: Deportivo Garcilaso win · 67%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Garcilaso67%64%+4
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−2
OursMarket
Los Chankas CYC13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 36% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Garcilaso
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Melgar (A)2-4
- Oct 10 · v Sport Huancayo (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Universitario (H)4-0
- Sep 13 · at Sport Boys (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Club Atlético Grau (H)4-2
Los Chankas CYC
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 16 · v Asociación Deportiva Tarma (H)2-1
- Oct 8 · at Club Atlético Grau (A)0-0
- Sep 30 · at Cienciano (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Cajamarca (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Garcilaso | Los Chankas CYC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-1 | 0-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.