Liga 1 (Peru) · Sat, Oct 10 · 01:00 · Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Huancayo
Likeliest: Deportivo Garcilaso win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Garcilaso46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Sport Huancayo26%27%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Garcilaso
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Universitario (H)4-0
- Sep 13 · at Sport Boys (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Club Atlético Grau (H)4-2
- Aug 30 · at Alianza Lima (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Cusco FC (H)4-1
Sport Huancayo
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 20 · v Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Comerciantes Unidos (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Sport Boys (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · v CD Moquegua (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Garcilaso | Sport Huancayo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-0 | 3-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.