Liga 1 (Peru) · Sat, Sep 19 · 23:00 · Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario
Likeliest: Universitario win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Garcilaso29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Universitario40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Garcilaso
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 13 · at Sport Boys (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Club Atlético Grau (H)4-2
- Aug 30 · at Alianza Lima (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Cusco FC (H)4-1
- Aug 16 · at Cienciano (A)0-0
Universitario
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at Alianza Lima (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Comerciantes Unidos (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (A)4-2
- Aug 23 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)3-0
- Aug 16 · at FC Cajamarca (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Garcilaso | Universitario |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.