La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Aug 17 · 19:00 · Deportivo La Coruña vs Elche
Likeliest: Deportivo La Coruña win · 48%
We make it 51% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo La Coruña48%41%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%32%−6
OursMarket
Elche26%28%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 41% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 59% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 68% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 60% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo La Coruña
WinWinWinWinLoss
- May 31 · v Las Palmas (H)1-2
- May 24 · at Real Valladolid (A)2-0
- May 17 · v FC Andorra (H)2-1
- May 8 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
- May 1 · v Leganés (H)2-1
Elche
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- May 23 · at Girona (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- May 12 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Deportivo La Coruña | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.