La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 31 · 16:30 · Deportivo La Coruña vs Las Palmas
Likeliest: Deportivo La Coruña win · 55%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo La Coruña55%28%+27
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Las Palmas20%45%−25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 50% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 55% | +25 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 72% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 39% | +35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo La Coruña
DrawWinWinWinWin
- May 24 · at Real Valladolid (A)2-0
- May 17 · v FC Andorra (H)2-1
- May 8 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
- May 1 · v Leganés (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Burgos (A)1-1
Las Palmas
WinWinLossWinDraw
- May 24 · v Real Zaragoza (H)1-1
- May 16 · at Almería (A)2-1
- May 10 · at FC Andorra (A)1-5
- May 3 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-1
- Apr 27 · at Cádiz (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo La Coruña | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.