La Liga 2 (Spain) · Fri, May 1 · 16:30 · Deportivo La Coruña vs Leganés
Likeliest: Deportivo La Coruña win · 45%
A 29% away win. The market says 16%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo La Coruña45%62%−17
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+4
OursMarket
Leganés29%16%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 84% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 38% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 80% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo La Coruña
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Apr 25 · at Burgos (A)1-1
- Apr 20 · v Mirandés (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at Huesca (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Málaga (H)1-1
- Mar 31 · v Córdoba (H)2-0
Leganés
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 26 · v FC Andorra (H)0-4
- Apr 17 · at Las Palmas (A)0-2
- Apr 11 · v Albacete (H)2-1
- Apr 5 · at Almería (A)1-2
- Apr 2 · v Real Zaragoza (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo La Coruña | Leganés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.