La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Oct 16 · 19:00 · Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UD
Likeliest: Deportivo La Coruña win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo La Coruña44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Levante UD28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo La Coruña
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v Sevilla (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Getafe (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
Levante UD
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 12 · v Sevilla (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Barcelona (H)2-4
- Sep 6 · at Málaga (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Real Betis (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo La Coruña | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.