La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Apr 4 · 16:30 · Deportivo La Coruña vs Málaga
Likeliest: Málaga win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 25%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo La Coruña32%48%−16
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Málaga40%25%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 75% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 52% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 66% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo La Coruña
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Mar 31 · v Córdoba (H)2-0
- Mar 28 · at Sporting Gijón (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Real Zaragoza (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Ceuta (A)2-1
- Mar 8 · v Granada (H)0-2
Málaga
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Apr 1 · at FC Andorra (A)3-3
- Mar 28 · v Leganés (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at Cádiz (A)3-0
- Mar 15 · v Huesca (H)5-3
- Mar 7 · v Real Valladolid (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Deportivo La Coruña | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.