La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 20 · 16:30 · Deportivo La Coruña vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo La Coruña26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Real Betis46%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo La Coruña
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 16 · v Sevilla (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Getafe (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
- Aug 30 · v Valencia (H)3-1
- Aug 24 · at Málaga (A)1-1
Real Betis
LossWinWinWinWin
- Sep 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Villarreal (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Lille (A)3-2
- Sep 4 · v Real Madrid (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Levante UD (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | Deportivo La Coruña | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.