La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Sep 16 · 17:00 · Deportivo La Coruña vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Deportivo La Coruña win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo La Coruña37%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%31%+1
OursMarket
Sevilla32%31%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo La Coruña
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 13 · at Getafe (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
- Aug 30 · v Valencia (H)3-1
- Aug 24 · at Málaga (A)1-1
- Aug 17 · v Elche (H)1-1
Sevilla
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 11 · v Valencia (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Atletico Madrid (H)1-3
- Aug 22 · at Athletic Club (A)3-1
- Aug 15 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo La Coruña | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.