La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Aug 30 · 17:30 · Deportivo La Coruña vs Valencia
Likeliest: Deportivo La Coruña win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 37%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo La Coruña44%37%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Valencia30%33%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 41% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 63% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 53% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo La Coruña
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Aug 24 · at Málaga (A)1-1
- Aug 17 · v Elche (H)1-1
- May 31 · v Las Palmas (H)1-2
- May 24 · at Real Valladolid (A)2-0
- May 17 · v FC Andorra (H)2-1
Valencia
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 25 · v Real Betis (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- May 23 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-1
- May 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)4-3
- May 14 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo La Coruña | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.