Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:00 · Deportivo Madryn vs Chaco For Ever
Likeliest: Deportivo Madryn win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Madryn50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw32%31%+2
OursMarket
Chaco For Ever18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 38% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Madryn
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 2 · at Club Ferro Carril Oeste (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Central Norte de Salta (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Racing de Córdoba (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at Defensores de Belgrano (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Ciudad de Bolivar (H)3-1
Chaco For Ever
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v Defensores de Belgrano (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at Ciudad de Bolivar (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Almirante Brown (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Mitre (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Madryn | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.