Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Deportivo Madryn vs San Telmo
Likeliest: Deportivo Madryn win · 55%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Madryn55%58%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%27%+1
OursMarket
San Telmo18%15%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 85% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Madryn
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at Acassuso (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Chaco For Ever (H)1-2
- Oct 2 · at Club Ferro Carril Oeste (A)2-0
- Sep 26 · v Central Norte de Salta (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Racing de Córdoba (H)2-0
San Telmo
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 19 · v Defensores de Belgrano (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Ciudad de Bolivar (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · v Almirante Brown (H)3-2
- Sep 27 · at Mitre (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Madryn | San Telmo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 3-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.