Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Deportivo Maipú vs Güemes
Likeliest: Deportivo Maipú win · 82%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 82% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Maipú82%78%+4
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
Güemes5%7%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 18% | 22% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Maipú
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v San Martín de San Juan (H)1-1
- Oct 5 · at Nueva Chicago (A)1-0
- Sep 27 · v Temperley (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Gimnasia Jujuy (H)1-1
Güemes
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Almagro (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Patronato (A)0-2
- Oct 4 · v Colegiales (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Quilmes Atlético Club (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Ferrocarril Midland (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Maipú | Güemes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-0 | 0-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.