Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 3 · 21:00 · Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Español
Likeliest: Deportivo Maldonado win · 56%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Maldonado56%57%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Central Español19%18%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 82% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 43% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Maldonado
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 27 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Defensor Sporting (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)0-2
Central Español
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 27 · v Liverpool UY (H)1-2
- Sep 21 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Defensor Sporting (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Maldonado | Central Español |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.