Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 24 · 22:30 · Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio
Likeliest: Deportivo Maldonado win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Deportivo Maldonado49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Danubio22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Deportivo Maldonado
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 19 · at Nacional (A)2-3
- Oct 9 · v Liverpool UY (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Central Español (H)3-0
- Sep 27 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-0
Danubio
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Central Español (H)1-0
- Oct 9 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Defensor Sporting (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Deportivo Maldonado | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.